Gold price is outperforming silver today as risk on sentiment has increased after Poland was hit by a missile. Right after the news, gold witnessed a temporary price spike and was within touching distance of $1800. However prices have retraced back as findings are ongoing whether the missile is from Russia or Ukraine.
Sentiment has also changed after gold has sustained above $1700 as investors and hedge funds have started taking long positions. The initial rally which breached $1700 was on back of short covering after US CPI came lower than expected but now gold’s net short position has shifted considerably from its recent four year high. Now the mentality is buy on dips rather than sell on rise. In MCX, we would advocate buy on dips strategy with stoploss of 52710 and expected price of 53200—53340.
Yellow metal at the Comex
Amid rise in the geo-political risk, the yellow metal at the Comex rebounded to $1,786 an ounce. Investors sought renewed safe haven exposure after a missile of Russian make fell in the eastern part of Poland. The incident marks the first time that Russian weapons have struck NATO territory, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy calling the strike a “very significant escalation” of the war.
Since then, the yellow metal fell toward $1,770 an ounce, easing from a three-month high as investors took some profits off the table, while assessing the US rates outlook and the potential for a wider geopolitical conflict in Europe. Weakness in the dollar also benefited gold prices, after data showed US producer inflation hit a 14-month low in October.
The reading, coupled with softer-than-expected consumer inflation data released last week, saw markets ramping up bets that U.S. inflation had eased. Outlook is still flattish to positive in the yellow metal. MCX Gold December futures may rise to Rs. 53,100 per 10 gram.
Gold prices made a new multi-month high in the last session. Prices touched the 53000 level, but failed to sustain near the day’s high, as investors booked profit after PPI data. The dollar index recovered after a steep fall of 5 percent in the past few days. On the daily chart, Gold prices settled around the 52700 level and have formed a Gravestone doji candlestick, which indicates that prices may retrace from the higher level.
Investors will now focus on retail sales data to take further cues from the Fed. The Poland missile attack has supported Gold at a lower level. The short trend is positive for Gold as long as the 52000 level is intact on the downside.